Current growth is also “not coming from AI itself but from building the factories to generate AI capacity,” he added, suggesting that the tech industry is selling a still-hypothetical future rather than delivering a real one.

It’s true that investment in AI has reached a fever pitch lately. Earlier this week, AI chipmaker Nvidia announced that it’s pouring $100 billion into OpenAI as part of a “strategic partnership” to “build and deploy at least ten gigawatts of AI datacenters” — a deal that critics immediately slammed as self-serving.

“It may not be an exaggeration to write that NVIDIA — the key supplier of capital goods for the AI investment cycle — is currently carrying the weight of US economic growth,” Saravelos argued.

“The bad news is that in order for the tech cycle to continue contributing to GDP growth, capital investment needs to remain parabolic,” he concluded. “This is highly unlikely.”